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Ford Motor Co.'s (F) stock has had a disastrous run in 2018 with the shares down by nearly 32% driven by slumping profits. The worse may not be over; technical analysis suggests the stock may fall more than 9% from its current price of about $8.80. Should the stock drop it would fall to a price not seen since the autumn of 2009. (For more, see also: Ford's Stock May Fall to Lowest Price in 6 Years .)
The stock has suffered as auto sales in 2018 have declined and that is leading analysts to cut their earnings estimates for the company. (For more, see also: Ford's Credit Rating Close to Junk After Downgrade.)
F Chart
F data by YCharts
The chart shows that the stock has been in a long-term downtrend since peaking July 2014. Now the stock is trading near technical support at $8.75. Should the stock drop below that level of support the shares could plunge to roughly $7.95, a price the stock has not traded at since November 2009.
The relative strength index (RSI) has been trending lower as bullish momentum leaves the stock. The RSI does not suggest a change in this trend is near.
Analysts expect Ford to deliver a very weak third-quarter report. They estimate that earnings will drop by more than 30% this quarter. It was only in July they were forecasting a loss of about 11%. Analysts expect revenue to be flat versus last year from previous estimates for growth of about 2%.
F EPS Estimates for Current Quarter Chart
F EPS Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts
The full-year outlook for the stock is just as bad with earnings expected to decline by 25%. That is lower than July estimates as well when analysts were looking for a 12% decline. Meanwhile, revenue is supposed to be flat versus last year which is lower than previous estimates for growth of more than 1%.
Analysts are currently forecasting earnings and revenue to struggle again next year. If the business outlook for the auto sector remains weak and analysts lower their earnings estimates, the stock is likely to continue to fall.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Read more: Ford Stock Seen Falling to Lowest Level in 9 Years | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/ford-stock-seen-falling-lowest-level-9-years/#ixzz5TjHeY48Y
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